This Year's NFL Championships

This coming weekend, the Conference Championships will be played, followed in two weeks by Superbowl Sunday. In all, three trophies will be awarded, one for each conference and one for the Superbowl. Readers of this blog (oh, that's only me) and my main blog The Christian Left are familiar with my past rankings of NFL frachises by number of championships (Superbowl, League and Conference) with ties broken by win-loss percentage, so none will be surpised that I will update these rankings this year.

With the conference championships set, there are four teams who could move in the rankings (thereby moving everyone else): Green Bay, New York, New England and San Diego (team names are trademarked, but cities are not).

Green Bay has 13 wins (like Dallas, who was eliminated yesterday). If they win the conference, they will have 14. If they win the Super Bowl they will have 15. Even if they lose the NFC title game, they will retain the best championship record at 13-6, ahead of Dallas' 13-11 record. The only way they would have been at risk was for Dallas to have won yesterday.

New York has 8 wins and 12 losses, with a 10th place ranking. If they win and New England loses, they will move into 7th place at 9-12. If New England (currently 8-4) wins the AFC title game, they will be at 9-4, taking Chicago's place at 6th and leaving New York in 8th. If New York wins the Super Bowl, they will stand at 10-12, and move into 6th (behind San Francisco and Washington, who are tied at 4th at 10-7. If New England wins the Super Bowl, they will move into 4th at 10-4, moving San Franciso and Washington down to a tie for 5th. A New England loss in the big game leaves them at 9-5 in 6th place.

San Diego is currently at 2-7 in 25th place. A loss this weekend will leave them where they are. In the unlikely event that they win at Foxboro, they will be at 3-7 in a tie with Tennessee for 20th. If they then lose the Super Bowl they fall to 21st at 3-8. If they win, they will be at 4-7 and move into 18th place, displacing Minnesota from that lofty perch.

The smart money is on a Green Bay vs. New England Super Bowl, with a New England victory. Of course, anything can happen. Stay tuned.

UPDATE: The Super Bowl will be New England, now at #6 v. New York, now at #8.

There is always another way of looking at these things, of course. One way, which also makes intuitive sense, is to first credit appearances in championship games and then rank the number of wins for teams with an equal number of title game appearances.

Here is how this scheme works out:

Rank Team Appearances Wins
1 Dallas 24 13
2 NY Giants 21 9
3 Green Bay 19 13
4 Pittsburgh 19 11
5 Oakland 19 8
6 San Francisco 17 10
6 Washington 17 10
8 St. Louis 17 6
9 Chicago 15 9
10 Denver 14 8
11 Cleveland 14 4
12 New England 13 9
13 Miami 12 7
13 Indianapolis 12 7
15 Buffalo 12 6
16 Minnesota 12 4
17 Philadelphia 11 5
18 Tennessee 10 3
19 San Diego 10 2
20 Detroit 6 4
20 Kansas City 6 4
22 Cincinnati 4 2
22 NY Jets 4 2
22 Tampa Bay 4 2
25 Carolina 4 1
26 Atlanta 3 1
26 Seattle 3 1
28 Baltimore 2 2
29 Arizona 2 1
30 Jacksonville 2 0
31 New Orleans 1 0

After the Superbowl, win or lose, nothing happens to the Giants, who will have 22 appearances and still be ranked #2 behind Dallas. New England will move into #10, win or lose (although for tie breakers, it is better to win).

This second system rewards longevity, although there is something wrong with rising in the ranks even if you lose.