Champions

Today was Conference Championship Sunday and it did not disappoint. In the AFC, Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen gave us a preview of the future. KC dominated, but Buffalo is just getting started. The NFC saw future Hall of Famers Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers with Tampa winning the day. Green Bay kept it close, but the Bucs showed domination.  Next week, Mahomes meets Brady in the Super Bowl. Two seasons ago, Tom beat Patrick in the AFC Championships as a Patriot. It's time for a rematch.

On the Trophy list, Kansas City has moved to #12, with seven wins and three losses. If they win next week, they break into the top 10. Tampa has moved up to #22, at three wins, two losses. If they win next week, they will move to #17. Whomever loses will keep the position they now hold.

The Appearance list is set for the year, as described last week. Green Bay is now number 2 overall for showing up to play, breaking a four-way tie. Here are this year's rankings.

And now, there are four

That Mahomes seems to have had his wind knocked out of him, rather than a concussion means an epic battle for the AFC. Likewise, Brady and Rodgers will be epic, although had Brady been kept by New England, that battle may have been at the Big Game.

As it is, by showing up, Green Bay takes sole position of the second spot for total appearances, with at least 15. Pittsburgh, Dallas and the Giants will be tied for third.

Should Green Bay win its next two games, they will have 17 wins and 9 losses in trophy games and reclaim the top spot and its position as Title Town, USA. (I don't count championships when there was only one division). New England would retain number one for most appearances (due largely to Tom Brady), but be number two with 17 wins and 10 losses in the overall championship stats.

By showing up next week, Buffalo makes its 13th appearance, moving into sole possession of the 16th spot and moving Miami into 17th, with 12. Kansas City will have 10 appearances, putting them into a tie with San Diego. If Buffalo wins, showing up at the Big Game will tie them with Tennessee at 11 appearances (from when Tennessee was at Houston). The current Houston team is last, with no appearances.

If either Kansas City or Buffalo win, they will move into the Top Ten in the championship ranking, with 8 wins and fewer losses than Indianapolis. By winning the AFC, KC would move ahead of Miami. Buffalo would move just behind them. Either way the Rams move down one spot in the trophy rankings with 7 wins and more losses than either KC or Buffalo. Philly will retain the 13th spot, tied with Buffalo, but would be 14th if KC wins.

Tampa Bay will have 5 appearances by showing up, moving them to 27th, tied with Arizona. By moving up, New Orleans and Cincinnati move down to 29th. A Big Game win would move Tampa into a tie with Baltimore and Detroit for 17th overall championships (with Baltimore and Detroit at 4 and 2) and 22nd in appearances with those two teams plus Atlanta, Carolina, the and the NY Jets. We saw Brady v. Brees in tonight's game, just to set the stage for next week.

Mahomes beat Brady last year in the AFC Championship. if Tampa and KC both win next week, there will be a rematch. If Green Bay goes instead, it will be Mahomes v. Rodgers, another one for the ages.

Next week, the comments section of this post will set up the final game, with the last post coming, with the new rankings, in three weeks.

Going to 14 Teams

Now that the NFL season is over, we get a closer look at how adding another team and taking away one first-round bye actually looks. I confess, I may be seeing something that others noticed and written about previously, but most have not been paying attention, nor seen how this season would have played out.

Granted, this has been a weird one, and not just because of SARS-CoV-2. Until now, people in their 20s were not getting particularly sick, so all the precautions may not have been necessary to protect the players - until now. The latest mutation gives it to more people and with more suffering for those who are younger. 

So stop if you have read this before - but I doubt you have.

The new playoff dynamics are amazing.

The outer brackets contain one team in a bye week for each conference who will likely play the best wild card team. 

In the American Conference, where the bottom four seeds have an equal record, this is unremarkable. It is also a bit strange that all of the wild cards and the number 4 seeded division team would have the same win-loss record. Given who is leading KC, there is little doubt as to the outcome.

In the National Conference, the lowest seeded host does not have a winning record, while the fifth seed is a game behind the second seed. Of the three outer-bracket teams, two have legendary quarterbacks and the other is a limping quarterback controversy. 

In the long run, the NFC scenario is more likely for the wild card and division rounds.

The inner bracket dynamics heavily favor division champions, with a very even match for the second round.  In the AFC, one match up is intra-divisional. Potentially, the title game could be too (in two scenarios). 

In the NFC inner brackets, we also see an inter-divisional week one and two hosting QBs that are longer in tooth. The Rams look like they have the most fire in the belly. Fit them for a possible glass slipper.

It is almost as if we had gone back to 3 divisions, no byes and one wild-card. I wonder if that was intended. 

Regardless, we are in for a treat.

Also of note, in the AFC, 3 teams with a connection to each other are all visitors. The team that left Baltimore took their record with them. The team that left for Baltimore had to leave their record behind, gifting it to an expansion team who is also in the playoffs. Note that the squad with the highest seed is from the city that got screwed out of past glory twice. I like their chances better than those for the team at the other end of the BW Parkway - but any given Sunday....

The Bowl Games and Beyond

This was a weird year. It also showed exactly why the current system for doing playoffs is unworkable. 

A fair system, which is based on conference records and championships would have been better, especially this year.

Texas A&M would probably have done better than Notre Dame in the final four. Of course, that would have been two SEC Teams rather than two ACC teams.  Hardly an improvement over a COVID close-down biased season. 

None of these athletes faced great risk due to this disease - although the latest strain seems to finally be making 20-somethings sick. Older coaches and staffs should have been benched, not the kids.

A system that does not put Iowa State in the final four needs to be changed - likely expanded. Of course, the Big 12 needs divisions and a championship game to prove that you don't have to be a Sooner to be a national champion from the heartland.

The big five conferences should each have two divisions, with the division champions being automatic seeds into a sweet sixteen playoff with six more wild cards (like the Aggies or standout teams in the lesser conferences - like BYU). Set up the brackets and let the games begin. 

Without a pure playoff, brackets should still determine final rankings rather than some poll. For the BCS Bowls, no loser should be in the top tier. This would have given us rankings like this:

Texas A&M #3, Oklahoma #4, Georgia #5, Iowa State #6,  Northwestern #7, Clemson #8, Notre Dame #9, Florida #10 Cincinnati #11 and UNC #12

In the long run, I would end the four-year degree. Middle school would stop at grade 7. High school would be 8 through 10. After that, there would be academic and practical tracks - with both having public and private schools. Catholic high schools need to go beyond college prep. 

If youth full contact football survives at all, it should not start until grade 11 and it should end after grade 14 - with both academic and practical high schools fielding teams. Also, all students, including student athletes, should be paid to attend class and do extra-curricular activities. Not paying opportunity costs keeps students from poorer families out of much needed advancement.

Grades 11-14 should compete only to the state - or maybe to a regional - level. After age 20, students can drink and be drafted for pro sports. Some will get jobs. 

A lot of "college level" jobs are doable with an Associates Degree. Having everyone check that box on the way to a four-year degree increases the value of having less education. General education academics and practical academics would have some overlapping course work, especially if getting such an education is a step toward supervision in the retail, computer and manufacturing sectors. 

Anything after age 20 should be paid by employers, with classes related to the career rather than general education. Many fields require a graduate degree anyway, so the B.A. is losing its significance and, given the cost, its value. At some point, schools with hard science and humanities focuses would also diverge, although everyone will have to learn statistics at some point at the graduate level. 

Last Year's Big Game

I have been amiss in not keeping up my annual commentary on the greatest team to date at the end of the last championship season. Instead, I tweeted my comments. Since it is impossible (at least for me) to find tweets from February of last year, I will make some notes now for continuity with next month's column on the 2020 Season.

Wow. Mahomes. Wow.

It is probably all we will be saying next month too, but we play games for a reason - just in case.

If being there year after year is the essence of greatness (win or lose), then Green Bay moved up by losing the NFC Championships. They are now tied with Pittsburgh, the NY Giants and Dallas at number 2, at 24 championship game appearances (sorry Pack, I don't count non-playoff titles). New England is at the top with 27 AFL, AFC, and Super Bowl appearances. They also retain the overall championship title with 17 total trophies. Had Green Bay won the NFC and the Big Game, they would have moved into a tie with New England (they currently have 15) and would have had one more appearance, for a total of 25.

By winning the NFC but losing the Big Game, San Francisco remained in 6th place on the appearance chart, with a new total of 23. Their overall trophy ranking is now 5th with trophy number 12. They leap frog over New York because SF has only 11 championship losses. NY has 12.

Losing the AFC title game gives Tennessee (nee Houston's Oilers) 11 appearances, with 3 wins. They remain in sole possession of 23rd place for trophies and 18th for appearances.

Kansas City had been tied with Seattle for total appearances at 20th with seven. With two more, they stand alone. Rumor has it that they may be moving up for a while - or down - given who is in the playoffs in the same zone of experience this year.

KC jumped from 18 to 15 in total trophies, with six. Buffalo also has six, but with six losses to KC's three. 

There are fourteen teams in the hunt for the 2020 season - almost half of the league. Pittsburgh, Green Bay and even Washington could cause movement at the top end of the all-time list, but there is a whole lot of potential for movement in the middle.